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Manatee, FL · ZIP 34243 · Census Tract 12081000902 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$374K
Downside (P10)
$326K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$416K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$532K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $147K | $148K | $162K | $194K | $214K | $235K | $232K | $275K | $327K | $372K | $374K | $380K | $392K | $416K |
| YoY Change | +1.0% | +9.3% | +19.9% | +10.0% | +9.9% | -1.4% | +18.7% | +19.0% | +13.8% | +0.4% | +1.6% | +3.1% | +6.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $327K | $337K | $326K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $453K | $501K | $532K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$327K to $453K
33.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$326K to $532K
49.5% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources