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Manatee, FL · ZIP 34210 · Census Tract 12081001106 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$258K
Downside (P10)
$218K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$270K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$408K
+58% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +58%. The model forecasts this with 61% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $127K | $131K | $136K | $145K | $165K | $177K | $183K | $194K | $234K | $249K | $258K | $261K | $262K | $270K |
| YoY Change | +3.4% | +3.9% | +6.2% | +14.2% | +7.3% | +3.5% | +5.8% | +20.5% | +6.7% | +3.5% | +0.9% | +0.5% | +3.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $224K | $228K | $218K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $320K | $354K | $408K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$224K to $320K
37.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$218K to $408K
70.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradenton · 34210 · (Tract 11.6) | $252K | $270K | +7.1% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000601) | $251K | $265K | +5.7% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000703) | $265K | $280K | +5.6% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000103) | $263K | $277K | +5.3% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000811) | $266K | $275K | +3.3% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000406) | $251K | $254K | +1.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradenton · 34210 · (Tract 11.6) | $252K | $270K | +7.1% | |
| South Bradenton | $158K | $190K | +20.6% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000305) | $215K | $256K | +19.0% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000403) | $553K | $636K | +15.1% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001802) | $1.17M | $1.34M | +14.8% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001801) | $676K | $774K | +14.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradenton · 34210 · (Tract 11.6) | $252K | $270K | $190K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000105) | $127K | $137K | $67K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000313) | $80K | $85K | $53K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000204) | $89K | $97K | $51K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000203) | $83K | $84K | $49K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.