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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Manatee, FL · ZIP 34228 · Census Tract 12081001705 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$728K
Downside (P10)
$592K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$776K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.08M
+48% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $587K | $592K | $667K | $681K | $715K | $728K | $739K | $760K | $776K |
| YoY Change | +0.8% | +12.7% | +2.2% | +4.9% | +1.8% | +1.6% | +2.9% | +2.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $615K | $623K | $592K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $905K | $963K | $1.1M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$615K to $905K
39.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$592K to $1.08M
62.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longboat Key | $727K | $776K | +6.7% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001801) | $676K | $774K | +14.4% | |
| Lakewood Ranch (Tract 002016) | $714K | $773K | +8.3% | |
| Myakka City | $684K | $711K | +4.0% | |
| Lakewood Ranch (Tract 002023) | $661K | $683K | +3.3% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000810) | $651K | $660K | +1.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longboat Key | $727K | $776K | +6.7% | |
| South Bradenton | $158K | $190K | +20.6% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000305) | $215K | $256K | +19.0% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000403) | $553K | $636K | +15.1% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001802) | $1.17M | $1.34M | +14.8% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001801) | $676K | $774K | +14.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longboat Key | $727K | $776K | $487K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000105) | $127K | $137K | $67K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000313) | $80K | $85K | $53K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000204) | $89K | $97K | $51K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000203) | $83K | $84K | $49K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.