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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Pasco, FL · ZIP 34653 · Census Tract 12101031407 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$173K
Downside (P10)
$148K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$182K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$244K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $42K | $47K | $43K | $49K | $55K | $74K | $78K | $91K | $94K | $167K | $173K | $174K | $178K | $182K |
| YoY Change | +11.2% | -8.8% | +15.0% | +12.2% | +34.0% | +5.7% | +17.3% | +2.4% | +78.1% | +3.7% | +0.5% | +2.6% | +2.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $149K | $152K | $148K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $201K | $225K | $244K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$149K to $201K
29.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$148K to $244K
52.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Port Richey · 34653 · (Tract 314.7) | $171K | $182K | +6.8% | |
| Holiday (Tract 030602) | $170K | $194K | +14.2% | |
| Holiday (Tract 030411) | $179K | $195K | +9.0% | |
| Elfers | $174K | $184K | +6.1% | |
| Bayonet Point | $175K | $185K | +5.6% | |
| Jasmine Estates | $167K | $166K | -0.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Port Richey · 34653 · (Tract 314.7) | $171K | $182K | +6.8% | |
| Land O' Lakes | $389K | $455K | +17.1% | |
| New Port Richey (Tract 031605) | $448K | $521K | +16.4% | |
| Port Richey | $194K | $224K | +15.5% | |
| New Port Richey (Tract 031602) | $537K | $615K | +14.6% | |
| Holiday | $104K | $119K | +14.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Port Richey · 34653 · (Tract 314.7) | $171K | $182K | $96K | |
| New Port Richey (Tract 031406) | $85K | $94K | $58K | |
| Port Richey (Tract 031807) | $107K | $116K | $57K | |
| New Port Richey (Tract 031703) | $82K | $89K | $57K | |
| Bayonet Point | $119K | $123K | $39K | |
| Port Richey (Tract 030203) | $65K | $73K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.