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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Pasco, FL · ZIP 34654 · Census Tract 12101031301 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$238K
Downside (P10)
$181K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$255K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$328K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $74K | $85K | $91K | $99K | $107K | $123K | $122K | $155K | $200K | $231K | $238K | $241K | $250K | $255K |
| YoY Change | +14.4% | +6.5% | +9.6% | +7.6% | +15.4% | -0.8% | +26.6% | +29.5% | +15.5% | +2.7% | +1.3% | +3.9% | +1.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $207K | $202K | $181K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $288K | $312K | $328K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$207K to $288K
33.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$181K to $328K
57.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Richey · New Port Richey · (Tract 313.1) | $236K | $255K | +8.2% | |
| Port Richey (Tract 031205) | $246K | $264K | +7.3% | |
| Port Richey (Tract 031808) | $232K | $247K | +6.5% | |
| Shady Hills (Tract 031806) | $247K | $262K | +6.1% | |
| Beacon Square | $231K | $243K | +4.9% | |
| Shady Hills (Tract 031805) | $235K | $243K | +3.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Richey · New Port Richey · (Tract 313.1) | $236K | $255K | +8.2% | |
| Land O' Lakes | $389K | $455K | +17.1% | |
| New Port Richey (Tract 031605) | $448K | $521K | +16.4% | |
| Port Richey | $194K | $224K | +15.5% | |
| New Port Richey (Tract 031602) | $537K | $615K | +14.6% | |
| Holiday | $104K | $119K | +14.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Richey · New Port Richey · (Tract 313.1) | $236K | $255K | $147K | |
| New Port Richey (Tract 031406) | $85K | $94K | $58K | |
| Port Richey (Tract 031807) | $107K | $116K | $57K | |
| New Port Richey (Tract 031703) | $82K | $89K | $57K | |
| Bayonet Point | $119K | $123K | $39K | |
| Port Richey (Tract 030203) | $65K | $73K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.