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Dutchess, NY · ZIP 12569 · Census Tract 36027130005 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$362K
Downside (P10)
$291K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$398K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$509K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $252K | $251K | $251K | $263K | $261K | $256K | $269K | $297K | $323K | $348K | $362K | $372K | $381K | $398K | $365K |
| YoY Change | -0.1% | -0.2% | +5.1% | -1.1% | -1.9% | +5.4% | +10.2% | +8.7% | +7.7% | +4.2% | +2.7% | +2.4% | +4.4% | -8.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $315K | $314K | $291K | $320K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $439K | $453K | $509K | $408K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$315K to $439K
33.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$320K to $408K
24.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pleasant Valley | $354K | $398K | +12.5% | |
| Wappinger | $363K | $420K | +15.9% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 140700) | $368K | $410K | +11.5% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220801) | $367K | $396K | +7.6% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 140602) | $353K | $376K | +6.6% | |
| Hyde Park | $374K | $383K | +2.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pleasant Valley | $354K | $398K | +12.5% | |
| Pawling | $386K | $473K | +22.6% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 140101) | $276K | $328K | +19.0% | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220700) | $216K | $256K | +18.7% | |
| Fishkill | $477K | $560K | +17.4% | |
| Wappingers Falls | $339K | $398K | +17.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pleasant Valley | $354K | $398K | $218K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 221001) | $293K | $302K | $152K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220201) | $266K | $289K | $151K | |
| Hyde Park | $317K | $331K | $143K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 221100) | $174K | $196K | $103K | |
| Poughkeepsie (Tract 220101) | $166K | $184K | $93K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.