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Houston, TX · ZIP 77014 · Census Tract 48201550403 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$474K
Downside (P10)
$446K
-6% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$697K
+47% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.04M
+119% by 2030
Base case: +47% by 2030, with a forecast range from -6% to +119%. The model forecasts this with 53% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $107K | $115K | $127K | $132K | $145K | $158K | $168K | $190K | $213K | $232K | $259K | $474K | $593K | $1.7M | $1.9M | $697K |
| YoY Change | +7.0% | +10.4% | +4.1% | +10.1% | +8.8% | +6.4% | +13.0% | +12.2% | +8.7% | +11.5% | +83.2% | +25.1% | +181.0% | +14.9% | -63.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $335K | $963K | $1.2M | $446K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.2M | $3.0M | $3.1M | $1.0M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. This typically reflects limited transaction history, high price variance, or rapid neighborhood change.
1-Year Spread
$335K to $1.17M
140.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$446K to $1.04M
85.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenspoint · 77014 | $474K | $697K | +47.1% | |
| Hollister | $474K | $16.76M | +3438.7% | |
| South Houston | $475K | $16.54M | +3385.1% | |
| South Belt | $475K | $13.72M | +2790.6% | |
| Katy | $475K | $7.00M | +1373.4% | |
| Atascocita | $475K | $1.24M | +160.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenspoint · 77014 | $474K | $697K | +47.1% | |
| Memorial | $5.27M | $2259.13M | +42764.8% | |
| Montrose | $3.60M | $1393.42M | +38608.9% | |
| Denver Harbor | $1.14M | $426.78M | +37380.3% | |
| Northside Heights | $1.27M | $405.87M | +31943.3% | |
| Fifth Ward | $787K | $238.29M | +30172.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenspoint · 77014 | $474K | $697K | $593K | |
| Atascocita | $611K | $635K | $454K | |
| Klein (Tract 554104) | $385K | $640K | $383K | |
| Klein (Tract 554808) | $264K | $566K | $353K | |
| Klein (Tract 554905) | $262K | $483K | $313K | |
| Klein (Tract 554904) | $344K | $434K | $280K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.